Completing the Fertility Transition: Jordan, Lebanon and Syria

The demographic transition in the Arab countries of Western Asia in general has been somewhat peculiar. Total fertility rose substantially before it began its historical decline. Life expectancy rose at a very fast pace. The very high fertility rates, resulted in an extremely youthful populations which, combined with low mortality schedules, resulted in crude death rates (CDRs) of 3 to 4 per thousand population, that is, lower than rates ever achieved in developed and most developing countries. The maximum range between crude birth rates (CBRs) and crude death rates, therefore, reached, in some countries, particularly in the Gulf, the unprecedented levels of 4.5 to 5 per cent a year. Looking to the near future, as the ageing process advances with the expected fall in fertility, the further gains in life expectancy will be accompanied by an increase in crude death rates.